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    2024 Oscar Predictions in Every Category Post-Actors Strike – The Music news


    PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Music news’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

    * * *

    Best Picture

    Frontrunners
    1. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
    2. Oppenheimer (Universal)
    3. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
    4. Poor Things (Searchlight)
    5. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
    6. Past Lives (A24)
    7. Maestro (Netflix)
    8. The Holdovers (Focus)
    9. The Zone of Interest (A24)
    10. May December (Netflix)

    Major Threats
    11. Rustin (Netflix)
    12. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
    13. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
    14. Nyad (Netflix)
    15. Origin (Neon)
    16. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)

    Possibilities
    17. Ferrari (Neon)
    18. Air (Amazon/MGM)
    19. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
    20. Priscilla (A24)
    21. The Taste of Things (IFC)
    22. Dumb Money (Sony)

    Can’t Yet Call
    The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
    The Iron Claw (A24)
    Napoleon (Apple/Sony)

    Best Director

    Frontrunners
    1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
    2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
    3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
    4. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
    5. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)

    Major Threats
    6. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
    7. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
    8. Celine Song (Past Lives)
    9. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
    10. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
    11. Ava DuVernay (Origin)

    Possibilities
    12. Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
    13. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
    14. George C. Wolfe (Rustin) — podcast
    15. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
    16. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
    17. Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)
    18. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
    Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
    Ridley Scott (Napoleon)

    Best Actor

    Frontrunners
    1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
    2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
    3. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
    4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
    5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

    Major Threats
    6. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
    7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
    8. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast
    9. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
    10. Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)
    11. Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

    Possibilities
    12. Adam Driver (Ferrari)
    13. Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)
    14. Alden Ehrenreich (Fair Play)
    15. Michael Fassbender (The Killer)
    16. Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
    17. Benoît Magimel (The Taste of Things)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
    Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)

    Best Actress

    Frontrunners
    1. Annette Bening (Nyad)
    2. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
    3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
    4. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
    5. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — 
    podcast

    Major Threats
    6. Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
    7. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
    8. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
    9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
    10. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
    11. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)

    Possibilities
    12. Eve Hewson (Flora and Son)
    13. Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)
    14. Phoebe Dynevor (Fair Play)
    15. Trace Lysette (Monica)
    16. Thomasin McKenzie (Eileen)
    17. Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders) — podcast

    Can’t Yet Call
    Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Frontrunners
    1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
    2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
    3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
    4. Charles Melton (May December)
    5. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast

    Major Threats
    6. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
    7. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
    8. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
    9. John Magaro (Past Lives)
    10. Chris Messina (Air)

    Possibilities
    11. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
    12. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
    13. Jacob Elordi (Priscilla)
    14. Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)
    15. Eddie Marsan (Fair Play)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Colman Domingo (The Color Purple)
    Corey Hawkins (The Color Purple) — podcast
    Tahar Rahim (Napoleon)
    Jeremy Allen White (The Iron Claw)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Frontrunners
    1. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
    2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
    3. Julianne Moore (May December)
    4. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
    5. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast

    Major Threats
    6. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
    7. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
    8. Issa Rae (American Fiction) — podcast
    9. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)
    10. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
    11. America Ferrera (Barbie)

    Possibilities
    12. Viola Davis (Air)
    13. Tracee Ellis Ross (American Fiction) — podcast
    14. Leslie Uggams (American Fiction)
    15. Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
    16. Anne Hathaway (Eileen)
    17. Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcast

    Can’t Yet Call
    Halle Bailey (The Color Purple)
    Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
    H.E.R. (The Color Purple) — podcast
    Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
    Lily James (The Iron Claw) — podcast
    Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon)
    Maura Tierney (The Iron Claw)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Frontrunners
    1. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
    2. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
    3. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
    4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
    5. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

    Major Threats
    6. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
    7. Origin (Ava DuVernay)
    8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
    9. Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum)
    10. Nyad (Julia Cox)

    Possibilities
    11. Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin and Brock Yates)
    12. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
    13. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
    14. Eileen (Luke Goebel)

    Can’t Yet Call
    The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Frontrunners
    1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
    2. Past Lives (Celine Song)
    3. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
    4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
    5. The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Catak and Johannes Duncker)

    Major Threats
    6. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)
    7. May December (Sam Burch and Alex Mechanik)
    8. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
    9. Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
    10. Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)

    Possibilities
    11. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)
    12. Air (Alex Convery)
    13. Cassandro (David Teague and Roger Ross Williams) — podcast (Williams)
    14. Flora and Son (John Carney)
    15. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)

    Can’t Yet Call
    The Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)
    Napoleon (David Scarpa)

    Best International Feature

    Frontrunners
    1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
    2. The Taste of Things (France)
    3. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
    4. Perfect Days (Japan)
    5. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Io Capitano (Italy)
    Godland (Iceland)
    Shayda (Australia)
    Society of the Snow (Spain)
    Fallen Leaves (Finland)
    Blaga’s Lessons (Bulgaria)
    Four Daughters (Tunisia)
    About Dry Grasses (Turkey)
    Thunder (Switzerland)
    The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Frontrunners
    1. American Symphony (Netflix)
    2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
    3. Kokomo City (Magnolia)
    4. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
    5. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)

    Rest of the Shortlist
    6. The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
    7. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
    8. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
    9. The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
    10. The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
    11. The Mission (Nat Geo)
    12. Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
    13. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
    14. Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
    15. Every Body (Focus)

    Possibilities
    16. Occupied City (A24)
    17. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    18. King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    19. The League (Magnolia)
    20. Joan Baez: I Am a Noise (Magnolia)

    Can’t Yet Call
    32 Sounds (Abramorama)
    Black Ice (Lionsgate)
    A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
    Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
    Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story (HBO)
    Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)
    Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
    Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)
    Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
    The Mother of All Lies (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)
    Periodical (MSNBC)
    Uncharitable (Abramorama)
    What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (Abramorama)
    While We Watched (PBS)
    Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)

    Best Animated Feature

    Frontrunners
    1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    2. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
    3. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
    4. They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
    5. Nimona (Netflix)

    Major Threats
    6. Wish (Disney)
    7. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
    8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)

    Can’t Yet Call
    Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
    Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
    The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
    Leo (Netflix)
    Migration (Illumination)
    Robot Dreams (Neon)
    Stopmotion (IFC)
    Suzume (Toho)
    Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)



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