Census Bureau data out today will shape the redistricting fight of this decade

Happy Thursday,

It has arrived without much fanfare, but today is one of the most important days for the next decade of American politics.

Later this afternoon, the Census Bureau will release the data that all 50 states will use to redraw their political maps. That includes congressional districts as well as state legislative and other local districts. It’s a process that the constitution mandates just once every 10 years, and is therefore hugely consequential.

Almost every redistricting cycle is a nasty political battle over whose districts are preserved, cut and made more or less competitive. But observers are particularly concerned this time around.

One of the main reasons is a 2019 supreme court decision in a case called Common Cause v Rucho. In that case, the supreme court said for the first time that federal courts could not do anything to stop lawmakers from severely manipulating districts for political purposes. It’s a decision that could embolden lawmakers, who control the redistricting process, to tweak districts in a way that bakes in political wins for their respective parties. It will also be a boon to Republicans, who are poised to dominate the redistricting process this year.

Another concern is the absence of federal oversight. In every redistricting cycle since 1965, the Voting Rights Act has required places with a history of voting discrimination to get their districts pre-approved by the justice department or a three-judge court in Washington DC before they go into effect. But because of a 2013 supreme court ruling, states are no longer required to obtain that pre-clearance. States may now seek to draw districts that weaken the influence of voters of color. Civil rights and other groups can still challenge the districts, but probably only after they go into effect. This means that elections could occur in these discriminatory districts as litigation moves slowly through the courts.

One of the biggest issues is the data itself.

There are lingering worries that the Census Bureau’s 2020 count was inaccurate and undercounted minority communities. While the bureau has repeatedly assured the public of its confidence in the data, experts will be combing through it to spot any anomalies.

In a normal redistricting cycle, the data being released today would have been published much earlier in the year, giving states ample time to draw new maps before the midterm elections. But because of Covid-related delays with the 2020 census, the data is late. That’s another problem, because states face rapidly approaching deadlines to produce their maps for elections next year. Redistricting is a notoriously opaque process and the condensed timeline could allow lawmakers to rush plans through with little public input.

Beyond redistricting, the census data is also expected to show just how fast America’s non-white population is growing. The new numbers are likely to confirm estimates that non-white people account for almost all of the population growth in the US, while the white population is shrinking, according to the Washington Post.

Also worth watching …

• The US Senate adjourned for its summer recess without passing a sweeping voting rights bill. While Democrats have pledged to bring a compromise bill for a vote in the fall, that may be too late to stop severe partisan gerrymandering, since mapmaking will already be under way in many places. There also still isn’t a clear plan for how Democrats will get around the filibuster, a Senate rule Republicans have used to block a vote on the legislation.

• Texas Democrats remain outside the state, denying Republicans a legislative quorum to pass new voting restrictions. Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, ordered a second special session that began last weekend and the house has signed arrest warrants to bring lawmakers who return to Texas to the capitol. Those outside the state are beyond the jurisdiction of Texas law enforcement.

• There’s growing concern that the independent panel in charge of drawing Michigan’s electoral maps may hire a law firm connected to Republicans to help it draw new districts.