Based on early grosses pouring in, the superstar’s new concert movie Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is headed for a domestic opening of $100 million, per AMC Theatres’ estimates. The movie grossed a huge $39 million on Friday, on par with such tentpoles as Spider-Man: No Way Home ($39.2 million). Hollywood studios are estimating an opening weekend range of $90 million-$110 million, but AMC is sticking to its estimate of $100 million.
The movie has a shot at snagging the biggest October opening of all time in North America, a record currently held by Joker ($96.2 million), according to Comscore. And by the weekend’s end, it is assured of already being the top-grossing concert film of all time, not adjusted for inflation.
Eras Tour was graced with a coveted A+ CinemaScore by audiences and boasts a rare 100 percent fresh critics’ rating on Rotten Tomatoes. (One qualifier: there are only 25 reviews. Usually, there are 200 or more.)
And the power of female moviegoers is once again on full display following Barbie. Friday’s audience was 82 percent female. In terms of overall age groups, 63 percent of ticket buyers were between 18 and 34. The largest group was those between 25 and 34. As expected, teenagers also turned out in force (17 percent).
“The significance of this weekend’s performance of the Taylor Swift concert film cannot be overstated and given its outlier status and totally unique path to the multiplex is made all the more impressive and unexpected that lands in the wake of Barbenheimer big screen phenomenon,” says chief box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “It proves once again that the movie theater has become a revenue-generating platform that is unrivaled even among the ubiquitous and rightfully popular streaming services whose overall impact pales by in comparison to the big screen experience.”
It is also the first time in modern history that a theater chain — in this case, mega-circuit AMC Theatres — has distributed a movie, versus a traditional Hollywood studio.
To date, 2011’s Justin Bieber: Never Say Never holds the record domestically with a lifetime total of $73 million, not adjusted for inflation. It earned another $26 million overseas for a global total of $99 million. Michael Jackson’s 2009 posthumous documentary/concert film This Is It earned $72.1 million in North America and $181.9 million globally.
Eras Tour isn’t following a normal release pattern and will play Thursday-Friday for three weekends following its opening.
The pic is also opening overseas, with AMC predicting a global start in the $150 million range.
More to come.