Earlier this month, results from a SurveyUSA poll showed that 51% of likely voters in California’s upcoming recall election would vote to remove Governor Gavin Newsom from office. It was the first poll to show a majority favoring his removal and led to a dramatic shift in polling averages.
Before these results, polling averages calculated by the politics and data website FiveThirtyEight showed a 7-point margin favoring keeping Newsom in office. But with SurveyUSA’s data, the margin narrowed to less than one point. As of August 17, the latest date for which we have data, the margin has inched up to 1.2 points, with 48.8% for keeping Newsom in office and 47.6% for removing him.